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What is meant by the term "Peak Oil"
The term "Peak
Oil" was considered fringe thinking 10 years ago and only
discussed in books and articles by geologist that believed the the theory
proposed in 1956 by a Shell geologist named M. King Hubbert. Now the
concept is being discussed by some members of congress as fact not theory
and the concept has made main stream press coverage since the summer of 05.
Even several major Oil Companies have now alluded to the concept, several
countries such as
Sweden have adopted "Peak Oil" policies, and several
cities in the US (San
Francisco and
Portland OR )have adopted "Peak Oil" resolutions.
For thousands of links, Google the term "Peak
Oil". To stay on top of the subject go to
http://news.google.com
and search on "Peak Oil". You can customize your Google News page to
bring in articles on Peak Oil. The link is towards the top of the page
on the right.
I have pulled together many resources below to
help educate you on the concept of "Peak Oil" as well as information
that strongly suggests that we have passed the era of "Cheap Energy".
You will quickly see why many well educated geologist and congressmen feel
that this issue is one of the most serious problems facing modern society.
Some Background:
First you should read the following article
published in "Scientific America" March 1998 issue
by
Colin J. Campbell and
Jean H. Laherrère, Colin Campbell is one of the worlds leading
authorities on "Peak Oil", has his PhD in Geology from Oxford and spent his
life working for the Texaco Oil Company. This article will give a good
background on the concept as well as its founder M. King Hubbert who worked
for Shell Oil and developed the mathematical model for "Peak Oil"
Click Here
for
the article in pdf format.
US Congress:
UNDERSTANDING THE PEAK OIL
THEORY
HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY OF THE COMMITTEE
ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION
DECEMBER 7, 2005
Click Here for full hearing minutes
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett
Congressman Bartlett, Republican from Maryland, leads the fight in
congress on the "Peak Oil" issue.
Click Here
for his website with many links to speeches etc.
Click Here for Congressional Record from April 05 speech.
Note: Bartlett's speech starts at the bottom right of the first page
you will load.
Click Here for
site with all of Bartlett's speeches on Peak Oil
Click Here to watch Nov 07 speech to congress.
Click Here to view most recent speech in 08 with links to print
version, graphs, and video of speech
Congressman Tom Udall
What peak oil means to every American By Congressman TOM UDALL,
Democrat, N. Mexico, Saturday, February 18, 2006
Click Here
for recent article.
Click Here for Mr. Udall's Webpage on Peak Oil
Peak Oil and U.S. Representative
Vernon Ehlers
Click Here for comments by Vernon Ehlers a member of the congressional
Peak Oil Caucus
More Comments by Congressmen Bartlett, Udall, and
Boehlert
Click
Here
US Government Studies:
DOE Report
The Hirsch Report, sponsored by Department Of Energy
is worth reading.
Click Here
for October condensed version published by the Atlantic Council which says Oil Production has peaked in 33 of the largest
48 countries.
Click Here
for original report to DOE.
Government Accountability Office
GAO Report, 2007 - this the report that Congressman Bartlett asked
for and is the first official government acknowledgment of the Peak Oil
Issue
US Army corps of Engineers Report
"Domestic oil production peaked in
1970 and continues to decline. World oil production is at or near its peak and
current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the
bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production
since April 2003." This is a quote from the U.S. Army
Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers and is dated September 2005 and available on one of the
Military Servers at
http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
Misc:
Council on Foreign Relations Report
"National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency"
This report was co-written by James Schlesinger, former head of the
Department of Energy.
Click Here
for PDF version of this important report.
USGS
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, annual oil discoveries around the
world have steadily declined since 1965. For the past five years, the world
consumed 27 billion barrels of oil per year. However, the oil industry only
discovered about 3 billion barrels in each of those years, meaning that for
every barrel found nine barrels were consumed. The U.S. Department of
Energy, in a 2005 analysis, stated that peak oil (the point at which global
oil production will reach its zenith and then begin to plummet) could be
reached as early as 2016. This analysis also stated that the U.S. will face
a "severe liquid fuels problem" if the nation does not begin planning a
post-petroleum economy prior to peak oil. Further, the D.O.E. said that if
such planning starts ten years prior to the peak, the U.S. will still face a
decade of "hardship". If peak oil is reached in 2016, then the time to
prepare a post-petroleum economy without "hardship" has already passed.
Main Stream Press Coverage:
2008 Click PDF image to right to see full page ad the ran in Time and
Fortune magazine in March of 08. Notice that Shell Oil sponsored the
ad.
Click
Here for Bio on Jeremy Leggett, the presenter in the ad
July 11th 2006 - Australia's Public TV has run a couple of
documentaries, you will need Flash Player to view.
Click Here for interview with Jeremy Leggett.
Click Here for new series with interview of experts on both sides of
the issue.
April 10th 2006 - WCOO-TV in Minnesota began broadcasting
the first US news series that explicitly covers peak oil. The
first segment has interviews with Peak Oil figures like Rep. Roscoe
Bartlett, Kenneth Deffeyes and Matt Simmons.
One energy story per night will appear during the second half of the 10
p.m. news program April 10-14.
NY Times - March 2 - op-ed by Robert Semple Jr, associate editor
of the Times Editorial Board, on peak oil.
"When President Bush declared in his 2006 State of
the Union address that America must cure its "addiction to oil," he
framed his case largely in terms of national security -- the need to
liberate the country from of its dependence on volatile and in some
cases hostile nations for much of its energy. He failed to mention two
other good reasons to sober up. Both are at least as pressing as
national security. One is global warming...
The second reason is just as unsettling, and is
only starting to get the attention it deserves. The Age of Oil --
100-plus years of astonishing economic growth made possible by cheap,
abundant oil -- could be ending without our really being aware of it.
Oil is a finite commodity. At some point even the vast reservoirs of
Saudi Arabia will run dry. But before that happens there will come a day
when oil production "peaks," when demand overtakes supply (and never
looks back), resulting in large and possibly catastrophic price
increases that could make today's $60-a-barrel oil look like chump
change. Unless, of course, we begin to develop substitutes for oil. Or
begin to live more abstemiously. Or both. The concept of peak oil has
not been widely written about. But people are talking about it now. It
deserves a careful look -- largely because it is almost
certainly correct."
Click
Here for full editorial published by Professor Deffeyes despite
copyright issues.
NY Times Magazine Cover Story August 21, 2005 by Peter Maass"The Breaking Point Saudi Arabia, soaring demand and the theory
of peak oil." Good background info and introduction to Saudi Arabia
issues.
Click Here for article
Tom Whipple of the Falls Church News-Press a newspaper in the
bedroom community of Washington DC often writes on Peak Oil. The Feb
16 Article on Mexico is very disturbing as Mexico is our second largest
source of Oil next to Canada.
Click Here
for the article
Click Here
for April 13 Editorial on Planning,
Click Here
for April 20th Editorial on the Politics of the Problem.
Click Here
for April 6th Editorial on how Peak Oil will change one's world view
Chevron has run 2 page ads in the Wall Street Journal, NY Times,
and other major publication. Read the ads on their website -
www.willyoujoinus.com to
see what Oil Companies are now admitting.
Click
Here to read a review of the ad from a different perspective than the
Oil Giant.
Energy Bulletin article on Kuwait downsizing their
Oil Reserves.
Click
Here
Reality Times - "Energy
Tsunami On The Way" by Jim Gillespie Ph.D. .
Even the publications for the Real Estate industry are looking at the
implication of "Peak Oil"
Click Here
Click
Here for index of "Peak Oil" in major media articles. Good index
of Tom Whipple's articles in the Falls Church News
Click Here for great response by Chris Skrebowski to CERA's report
that there will be no problem with oil in the near future
State and Cities with Peak Oil Resolutions:
Click Here for site with list of communities and states that have Peak
Oil resolutions.
Click Here for the state of Connecticut's resolution
NY City Sierra Club's Energy Committee is working with the city on a Peak
Oil resolution.
Click
Here for their website on this project.
Major Web Sites on Peak Oil:
There are two good primers on "Peak Oil" one should read. They are on
the fringe of the issue but Matt's site is now being quoted on the floor of
congress as having good factual information.
Click Here for Matt Savinar's site - Life After the Oil Crash",
Click
Here for good British site called "Wolf at the Door".
Association for the Study
of Peak Oil (ASPO)
Network of scientists affiliated with European institutions and
universities, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the
peak and decline of the world's production of oil and gas, due to resource
constraints. Based in Sweden
Oil Depletion
Analysis Center - The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is
an independent, UK-registered educational charity working to raise
international public awareness and promote better understanding of the
world's oil-depletion problem.
Hubberts Peak
Site Many links on topic.
Click Here
for Colon Campbell section of the website, a leading spokesman for Peak Oil
issues over the past couple of decades.
The
Energy
Bulletin is a good source for articles on this subject as well
as good information on the alternatives.
Matthew
Simmons
Here is what Peter Maass says about Mathew Simmons in the NY Times
Article on Peak Oil referenced above.
"For 31 years, Matthew Simmons has prospered as the head of his own firm,
Simmons & Company International, which advises energy companies on mergers
and acquisitions. A member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a graduate
of the Harvard Business School and an unpaid adviser on energy policy to the
2000 presidential campaign of George W. Bush, he would be a card-carrying
member of the global oil nomenclature, if cards were issued for such things.
Yet he is one of the principal reasons the oil world is beginning to ask
hard questions of itself." Matthew's Website has copies of all
his speeches.
Click Here to view his main website,
Click Here to jump to his page of speeches. His book "Twilight
in the Desert" is worth reading.
Ken Deffeyes,
Professor at Princeton and retired Shell Geologist who speaks out on the
issue.
Click Here for his site,
Click
Here for his Links site with many resources
Site with
many good links on Peak Oil -
Click Here
Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute, has a great book (Plan B 3.0)
available for free download. This is the book that Ted Turner gave out
3500 copies to all federal legislators and all the attendees of the Davos
Conference.
Click Here for PDF book or
click here for
main website
Click Here for site with great solutions for the future
Following Chart from DOE's Website showing countries that
have already Peaked
Below is a chart of Consumption compared to
Production from
ASPO's
Website
IEA = International Energy Agency
Numbers that tell a story: It took us 125
years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We’ll use the next trillion
in 30. - Cambridge Energy Research Associates
In 2006 a
new oilfield
of 500,000
Barrels of oil is considered large but only equals
6 days supply for the world Oil
production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries,
yet energy demand is increasing around the globe as economies grow and
nations develop. – Chevron’s Ad
Most of the major oil companies have peaked:
Chevron's production in the second quarter of 05 is down 6% from last year,
Exxon 5%; Shell 3%; Conoco 3%; Major oil company production has been
falling for several years and several companies have had to substantially
reduce estimates of reserves. Bill Henderson
Al-Jazeerah, September 5, 2005
“Discoveries have again slumped and are now well
below consumption: last year the world burned 25 billion barrels of oil, yet
oil companies were able to discover just 8 billion barrels—less than one new
barrel for every three consumed.” - Harper's Magazine, August 2004. By
Paul Roberts.
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70 percent of all current oil production comes from
fields discovered over 30 years ago.
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US Production Peaked in 1970 at 9 million barrels per
day, now at 6 million
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Exxon
- the last year when we found more oil than we burned was 1987
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97% of Worlds Conventional Oil has been found - Dr.
Deffeyes Princeton
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Executives at Exxon Mobil predict that more than 50
percent of oil and gas consumption in 2010 must come from new fields and
reservoirs
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Discovery of oil peaked in 1964
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The largest 1% of oil fields contain 75% of all the
discovered oil
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The largest 3% contain 84% of the oil
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